Currently futures markets are pricing in a rate cut as nearly certain at the Fed’s upcoming September 16–17 meeting. The CME FedWatch tool shows about a 90% probability of a 25 basis-point cut, and even some expectations of a 50 basis-point move have emerged.
Reuters report: Standard Chartered forecasts a 50 bp cut this month following the weak jobs data.
Fed officials’ remarks: Governor Christopher Waller has signaled support for a 25 bp cut in September and expects further easing over the next 3–6 months.
Alternative views: Morgan Stanley, while noting the market sees over an 80% chance of a cut, assesses the odds at closer to 50-50, pointing to resilient GDP, stable financial conditions, and persistent inflation risks
